Douglas Kuspiosz - Folha Group -
The ICMS (Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services) on fuels will increase starting January 1, 2026, due to a decision made in September by Confaz (National Council of Finance Policy), which brings together finance secretaries from all states. The adjustment should directly impact gasoline and diesel prices at the pumps at the beginning of next year.
In the case of gasoline, the specific state tax rate will increase by R$ 0.10 per liter, rising from R$ 1.47 to R$ 1.57. For diesel, the increase will be R$ 0.05 per liter, from R$ 1.12 to R$ 1.17. Since ICMS (a state sales tax) is a tax levied at the point of origin, the impact tends to be passed on throughout the supply chain to the final consumer.
In a statement, Paranapetro (the Union of Fuel Retailers and Convenience Stores of the State of Paraná) stated that the increase in taxes from distributors to gas stations is passed on immediately. According to the organization, the change "results in an increase for the market."
In addition to the direct impact on drivers' wallets, the increase in ICMS (a Brazilian state tax) on fuels is expected to have broader repercussions on the economy. Economist Emerson Esteves believes that the tax increase tends to trigger a ripple effect, making other products and services more expensive.
"A large portion of Brazil's production is transported by road. We will see an impact on fruits and vegetables, because they are transported by diesel trucks. This will increase production costs and could further reduce producers' profit margins, which are already small," says the expert, who also mentions repercussions on other everyday items, from cleaning products to food.
Esteves also highlights the potential inflationary impact of the measure. “There are estimates that this increase could put pressure on next year's inflation, as measured by the IPCA, by about 0.1%. We still need to monitor whether this will be confirmed and how quickly this cost will be passed on to the final consumer. In some products, this pass-through tends to be immediate,” he states.
